Comments on: A quick I-told-you-so… http://www.close-to-the-chest.com/James/2010/02/23/a-quick-i-told-you-so/ The mad howlings of a fractured mind Wed, 18 Aug 2010 03:34:32 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Mike Doyle http://www.close-to-the-chest.com/James/2010/02/23/a-quick-i-told-you-so/comment-page-1/#comment-46 Mike Doyle Wed, 24 Feb 2010 07:21:51 +0000 http://www.close-to-the-chest.com/James/?p=128#comment-46 What he said, more or less. That is, you can't know ahead of time if it's just going to be an ordinary flu bug, or if it's going to be an Andromeda-level uberbug. If you wait to be sure, it'll be too late to do prophylaxis. For the record, I did not get my shot, but only because they were limiting vaccinations to perceived high-risk groups until well after it peaked, and I wasn't high-risk. Just as glad it didn't turn out to be an uberbug - if I'd gotten infected and brought it home, Mrs. D would have had some serious problems (and she couldn't get vaccinated in the first place, b/c her allergies make most vaccines non-starters - she's pretty much dependent upon herd immunity...) I will be interested to see if this bug mutates in time for next year, though... What he said, more or less. That is, you can’t know ahead of time if it’s just going to be an ordinary flu bug, or if it’s going to be an Andromeda-level uberbug. If you wait to be sure, it’ll be too late to do prophylaxis.

For the record, I did not get my shot, but only because they were limiting vaccinations to perceived high-risk groups until well after it peaked, and I wasn’t high-risk. Just as glad it didn’t turn out to be an uberbug – if I’d gotten infected and brought it home, Mrs. D would have had some serious problems (and she couldn’t get vaccinated in the first place, b/c her allergies make most vaccines non-starters – she’s pretty much dependent upon herd immunity…)

I will be interested to see if this bug mutates in time for next year, though…

]]> By: Tozetre http://www.close-to-the-chest.com/James/2010/02/23/a-quick-i-told-you-so/comment-page-1/#comment-45 Tozetre Wed, 24 Feb 2010 04:54:20 +0000 http://www.close-to-the-chest.com/James/?p=128#comment-45 Only because H1N1 wasn't an epidemic; if it had been, the numbers would be reversed, and greater. It's about herd immunity and likelihoods. This is going to convince people they don't need to get their next flu shot, or the next, and then some mouth-breather who figures "my immune system is strong enough" is going to catch 3 strains at once, breed a superflu, and kill my fat, athsmatic ass. The risk WAS, yes; but the risk COULD HAVE BEEN that 15% of the population died. We didn't know that then, and we don't know it about the next one. Only because H1N1 wasn’t an epidemic; if it had been, the numbers would be reversed, and greater. It’s about herd immunity and likelihoods. This is going to convince people they don’t need to get their next flu shot, or the next, and then some mouth-breather who figures “my immune system is strong enough” is going to catch 3 strains at once, breed a superflu, and kill my fat, athsmatic ass.

The risk WAS, yes; but the risk COULD HAVE BEEN that 15% of the population died. We didn’t know that then, and we don’t know it about the next one.

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